Ternana 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 40%, yet in-form Modena provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ternana vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Modena at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Libero Liberati this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Modena — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ternana, 1 for Modena and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ternana in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Modena in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 43% versus Modena 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Modena 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.24 xG and Modena 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.831 / defence 0.868 | Modena attack 1.116 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.054. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Ternana games / 21 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 40% | Draw 30% | Modena 29%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Modena 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Modena (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 20% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 40% | Draw 30% | Modena 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Ternana 1.24 / Modena 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.831 / def 0.868 | Modena attack 1.116 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Ternana (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Modena xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Modena kick off?
Ternana vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Modena?
Ternana 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Ternana vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Modena part of?
Ternana vs Modena is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 40% chance of winning, Modena a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ternana and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Ternana and Modena in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.83) and Modena's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.32
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.26
1.02
Modena xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Ternana and 1.02 for Modena, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 8W 5D 8L from 21 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 9L across 21 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.38 PPG, Modena on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Ternana are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Modena's away record stands at 4W 1D 5L across 10 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 62%.
Defensively: Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Modena in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Modena have gone 8W 4D 9L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Modena away?
Ternana's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.80 PPG; Modena away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Ternana or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Modena in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Modena won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ternana
1
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ternana 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 20%, Modena 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Ternana) and 60% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 30% of games; Modena in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Ternana's recent matches and 60% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Ternana's recent games and 60% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Modena tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Modena in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.24 xG and Modena 1.02 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Modena attack 1.12 / defence 1.29, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 40% | Draw 30% | Modena 29%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Modena 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.38 PPG, Modena 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.