Ternana 1-4 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ternana take on Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Lecce travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ternana at Stadio Libero Liberati this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lecce — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Lecce have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ternana 1.60 PPG, Lecce 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ternana have won 0, Lecce 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Lecce trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 59% versus Lecce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 47% | Lecce 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.04 xG and Lecce 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.056 / defence 1.121 | Lecce attack 0.840 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.037. Data: 32 Ternana games / 32 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 33% | Draw 37% | Lecce 30%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Lecce 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 30% | Lecce 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 33% | Draw 37% | Lecce 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Ternana 1.04 / Lecce 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.056 / def 1.121 | Lecce attack 0.840 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lecce xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Lecce kick off?
Ternana vs Lecce kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Lecce?
Ternana 1 - 4 Lecce.
Where is Ternana vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Lecce part of?
Ternana vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 33% chance of winning, Lecce a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ternana and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Ternana and Lecce in?
Ternana (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Lecce (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ternana's attack at 1.06x the league average against Lecce's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
37%
2.70
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.01
0.98
Lecce xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Ternana and 0.98 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 12W 8D 12L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Lecce's form line: 15W 14D 3L from 32 games, 1.84 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Lecce are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ternana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (8W 1D 7L).
On the road, Lecce have gone 5W 9D 2L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.56 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Lecce in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 12W 8D 12L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Lecce have gone 15W 14D 3L in their last 32 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Lecce away?
Ternana's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.56 PPG; Lecce away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Ternana or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lecce in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ternana
1
Draws
1
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Lecce have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when Ternana 1-4 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 38%, Lecce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ternana) and 31% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lecce in 38%; Lecce in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ternana's recent games and 31% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Lecce tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lecce in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lecce run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Ternana 1-4 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.04 xG and Lecce 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lecce outscored their 0.98 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Lecce attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 33% | Draw 37% | Lecce 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 47%, Lecce 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.