Ternana 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Cremonese meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 13:05 UTC.
Form
Ternana (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 1.30 PPG clear of Ternana in recent Serie B fixtures (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ternana lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ternana — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 60% versus Cremonese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 44% | Cremonese 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.97 xG and Cremonese 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.992 / defence 1.252 | Cremonese attack 0.960 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.170. Data: 25 Ternana games / 25 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 23% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 44%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Cremonese 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ternana 40% | Cremonese 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 23% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Ternana 0.97 / Cremonese 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.992 / def 1.252 | Cremonese attack 0.960 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Cremonese xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cremonese kick off?
Ternana vs Cremonese kicked off at 13:05 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cremonese?
Ternana 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Ternana vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cremonese part of?
Ternana vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 23% chance of winning, Cremonese a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ternana and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Ternana and Cremonese in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.99) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.96x) against Ternana's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
23%
4.43
34%
2.98
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.37
1.41
Cremonese xG
4.43
23%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
6%
18.08
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Ternana and 1.41 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana's recent record stands at 8W 7D 10L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 5L across 25 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 5W 1D 6L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 6W 2D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.52 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cremonese in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 13W 7D 5L in their last 25 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.33 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Ternana or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cremonese in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Cremonese have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Cremonese 1-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 42%, Cremonese 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ternana) and 42% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese in 33%; Cremonese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ternana's recent matches and 42% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ternana's recent games and 42% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cremonese tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Ternana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Ternana 1-2 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.97 xG and Cremonese 1.41 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.99 / defence 1.25 against Cremonese attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 23% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 44%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 44%, Cremonese 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.