Ternana 2-4 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Ternana welcome Ascoli to Stadio Libero Liberati. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 January 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 4W 1D 4L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's away record: 5W 2D 2L from 9 road trips in Serie B this season (1.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.89 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ternana) versus 1.20 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 28% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ternana 61% and Ascoli 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 44% | Ascoli 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.23 xG and Ascoli 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.025 / defence 1.163 | Ascoli attack 0.913 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.232. Ascoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Ternana games / 18 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 37%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Ascoli 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 44% | Ascoli 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Ternana 1.23 / Ascoli 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.025 / def 1.163 | Ascoli attack 0.913 / def 1.211 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Ascoli xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Ascoli kick off?
Ternana vs Ascoli kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Ascoli?
Ternana 2 - 4 Ascoli.
Where is Ternana vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Ascoli part of?
Ternana vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 34% chance of winning, Ascoli a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ternana and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Ascoli in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (1.02) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.46
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.54
1.31
Ascoli xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ternana and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ternana and 1.31 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 6L across 18 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.28 PPG, Ascoli on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 4W 1D 4L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.44 PPG overall record — Ascoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Ascoli in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.44 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ascoli have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Ascoli won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
5
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Ascoli have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 44%, Ascoli 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ternana) and 56% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Ternana's games and 67% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ternana's recent games and 56% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Ascoli tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Ternana 2-4 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.23 xG and Ascoli 1.31 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ascoli outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Ascoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 34% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 37%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 44%, Ascoli 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.28 PPG, Ascoli 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.