Ternana 3-0 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Alessandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Alessandria in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ternana at Stadio Libero Liberati this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Alessandria's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Alessandria have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Ternana's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Alessandria's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ternana 1W, Alessandria 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Ternana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Alessandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 60% versus Alessandria 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 43% | Alessandria 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.49 xG and Alessandria 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.965 / defence 1.155 | Alessandria attack 0.717 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.086. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Ternana games / 30 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 48% | Draw 33% | Alessandria 19%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.08 | Draw 3.03 | Alessandria 5.26. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Alessandria 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 48% | Draw 33% | Alessandria 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Ternana 1.49 / Alessandria 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.965 / def 1.155 | Alessandria attack 0.717 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Ternana (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Alessandria xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Alessandria kick off?
Ternana vs Alessandria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Alessandria?
Ternana 3 - 0 Alessandria.
Where is Ternana vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Alessandria part of?
Ternana vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 48% chance of winning, Alessandria a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ternana and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Alessandria?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 0 | Alessandria 0W.
What form are Ternana and Alessandria in?
Ternana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Alessandria (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ternana's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Alessandria's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.72x) against Ternana's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
48%
2.09
33%
3.05
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.39
0.90
Alessandria xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
4%
22.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ternana and 0.90 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 8D 12L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Alessandria's form line: 6W 7D 17L from 30 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Ternana are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alessandria.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (7W 1D 7L).
On the road, Alessandria have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 0.93 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Alessandria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Alessandria away?
Ternana's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.47 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ternana
0
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Alessandria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Ternana 3-0 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Alessandria?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 40%, Alessandria 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ternana) and 53% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Alessandria in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ternana's recent matches and 47% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ternana's recent games and 53% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Alessandria tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ternana run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Alessandria 3-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.49 xG and Alessandria 0.90 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alessandria landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against Alessandria attack 0.72 / defence 1.48, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 48% | Draw 33% | Alessandria 19%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 43%, Alessandria 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Alessandria's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.