Sudtirol vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Sudtirol welcome Pisa to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Sudtirol have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 2 for Pisa and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pisa trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Pisa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 35% | Pisa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.38 xG and Pisa 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.888 / defence 0.892 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Sudtirol games / 2 Pisa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 47% | Draw 30% | Pisa 23%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 4.35. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 47% | Draw 30% | Pisa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Sudtirol 1.38 / Pisa 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.888 / def 0.892 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Pisa xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Pisa kick off?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Pisa part of?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 47% chance of winning, Pisa a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sudtirol and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
Record (6 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 2 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.36
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.28
0.90
Pisa xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
6%
17.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.90 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 8W 19D 13L from 40 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 3W 12D 25L across 40 games — 0.52 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 5W 8D 6L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 0W 8D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.70 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 19D 13L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Pisa have gone 3W 12D 25L in their last 40 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Pisa away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.21 PPG; Pisa away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 47%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Sudtirol) and 68% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 42% of games; Pisa in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 53% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sudtirol's recent games and 68% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Pisa tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.