Sudtirol 1-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Parma travel to Stadio Marco Druso to take on Sudtirol. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.56 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sudtirol 1.56 PPG, Parma 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 44% | Parma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.07 xG and Parma 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.884 / defence 1.116 | Parma attack 1.084 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.124. Data: 9 Sudtirol games / 47 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 27% | Parma 43%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Parma 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 100% | Parma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 27% | Parma 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sudtirol 1.07 / Parma 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.884 / def 1.116 | Parma attack 1.084 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Parma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Parma xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Parma kick off?
Sudtirol vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Parma?
Sudtirol 1 - 0 Parma.
Where is Sudtirol vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Parma part of?
Sudtirol vs Parma is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 30% chance of winning, Parma a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sudtirol and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Parma in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Parma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.88x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
30%
3.38
27%
3.69
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.43
1.36
Parma xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.36 for Parma, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 1L across 9 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.56 PPG, Parma on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 1W 3D 0L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.67 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Parma in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Parma have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.25 PPG; Parma away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Parma in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Sudtirol 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sudtirol at 100%, Parma at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 50%; Parma in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sudtirol's games and 50% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Parma tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Parma in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Parma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Parma 1-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.07 xG and Parma 1.36 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Parma landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Parma attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 30% | Draw 27% | Parma 43%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 44%, Parma 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.56 PPG, Parma 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.