Spezia 4-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Spezia (all games): 4W 6D 0L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Spezia's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Carrarese in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 60% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 80% and Carrarese 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 60% | Carrarese 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.76 xG and Carrarese 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.065 / defence 1.001 | Carrarese attack 0.767 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.087. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Spezia games / 5 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 58% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 16%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Carrarese 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 70% | Carrarese 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 58% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Spezia 1.76 / Carrarese 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.065 / def 1.001 | Carrarese attack 0.767 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Spezia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Carrarese xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Carrarese kick off?
Spezia vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Carrarese?
Spezia 4 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Spezia vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Carrarese part of?
Spezia vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 58% chance of winning, Carrarese a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Spezia and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Carrarese in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Carrarese (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.06) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.77x) against Spezia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.88
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.60
0.83
Carrarese xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
3%
36.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Spezia and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Spezia and 0.83 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Carrarese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spezia's recent record stands at 2W 3D 0L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 4L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spezia by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carrarese heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Carrarese have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spezia
0
Draws
2
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 2, Carrarese have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Carrarese 3-1 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 80%, Carrarese 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Spezia) and 40% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Spezia's games and 40% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Spezia's recent games and 40% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Carrarese tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Carrarese 4-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.76 xG and Carrarese 0.83 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Carrarese attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 58% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 16%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 60%, Carrarese 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Spezia scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.