Spal 1-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Spal welcome Ternana to Stadio Paolo Mazza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spal — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ternana's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ternana — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spal, 1 for Ternana and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ternana trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 53% versus Ternana 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 43% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.40 xG and Ternana 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.097 / defence 1.337 | Ternana attack 0.751 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 0.968. Data: 68 Spal games / 68 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 47% | Draw 28% | Ternana 26%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Ternana 3.85. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spal as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ternana (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spal 80% | Ternana 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 47% | Draw 28% | Ternana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Spal 1.40 / Ternana 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.097 / def 1.337 | Ternana attack 0.751 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.143 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Spal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ternana xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Ternana kick off?
Spal vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Ternana?
Spal 1 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Spal vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Ternana part of?
Spal vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 47% chance of winning, Ternana a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spal and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Spal 1W | Draws 1 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Spal and Ternana in?
Spal (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.10x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.63
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Spal xG
Total xG
2.38
0.97
Ternana xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
6%
15.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Spal and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Spal and 0.97 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Spal have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 15W 25D 28L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Ternana's form line: 25W 18D 25L from 68 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.03 PPG, Ternana on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spal have posted 1.06 PPG from 34 outings (8W 12D 14L).
On the road, Ternana have gone 9W 11D 14L from 34 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.28 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Ternana in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 15W 25D 28L in their last 68 games (1.03 PPG), while Ternana have gone 25W 18D 25L in their last 68 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Ternana away?
Ternana's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.06 PPG; Ternana away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Spal or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ternana in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2022, when Spal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spal's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
2
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Ternana have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Spal 1-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spal at 65%, Ternana at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spal) and 59% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Ternana in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Spal's games and 68% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spal's recent games and 59% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Ternana tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ternana in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal and Ternana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal and Ternana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.40 xG and Ternana 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.10 / defence 1.34 against Ternana attack 0.75 / defence 1.12, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 47% | Draw 28% | Ternana 26%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 43%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.03 PPG, Ternana 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.