Spal 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Paolo Mazza plays host to Spal versus Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spal have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Spal have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Parma (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Parma's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Parma are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Spal 1W, Parma 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Spal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Spal — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Parma — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 55% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 43% | Parma 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.34 xG and Parma 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.045 / defence 1.296 | Parma attack 1.066 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.022. Data: 74 Spal games / 74 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 34% | Draw 29% | Parma 37%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Parma 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spal 80% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 34% | Draw 29% | Parma 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Spal 1.34 / Parma 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.045 / def 1.296 | Parma attack 1.066 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Parma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Parma xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Parma kick off?
Spal vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Parma?
Spal 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Spal vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Parma part of?
Spal vs Parma is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 34% chance of winning, Parma a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Spal and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Spal 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Spal and Parma in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Parma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.04x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.07x) against Spal's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.45
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Spal xG
Total xG
2.75
1.41
Parma xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Spal and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Spal and 1.41 for Parma, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spal's recent record stands at 16W 29D 29L from 74 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 26W 26D 22L across 74 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Spal against 1.41 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spal have managed 8W 15D 14L from 37 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 11W 15D 11L across 37 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Spal are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.26 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Parma in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 16W 29D 29L in their last 74 games (1.04 PPG), while Parma have gone 26W 26D 22L in their last 74 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.05 PPG; Parma away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Spal or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Parma won 4-0 on 26 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spal have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Spal 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 68%, Parma 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Spal) and 43% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 32%; Parma in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Spal's games and 49% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Spal's recent games and 43% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Parma tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Parma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Spal 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Spal 0-1 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.34 xG and Parma 1.41 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spal fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against Parma attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 34% | Draw 29% | Parma 37%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 43%, Parma 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.04 PPG, Parma 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.