Spal 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Palermo travel to Stadio Paolo Mazza to take on Spal. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's home record at Stadio Paolo Mazza: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Spal are significantly better at Stadio Paolo Mazza than their overall form suggests.
Palermo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 2W 1D 4L from 7 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palermo are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Spal in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Palermo in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Spal 44% | Palermo 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spal 38% | Palermo 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.66 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.187 / defence 1.214 | Palermo attack 0.868 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.117. Data: 54 Spal games / 16 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 47% | Draw 27% | Palermo 26%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Palermo 3.85. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spal are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Spal 50% | Palermo 29% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 47% | Draw 27% | Palermo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Spal 1.66 / Palermo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.187 / def 1.214 | Palermo attack 0.868 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Spal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Palermo xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Palermo kick off?
Spal vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Palermo?
Spal 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Spal vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Palermo part of?
Spal vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 47% chance of winning, Palermo a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Spal and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Palermo in?
Spal (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Palermo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spal's attack rating (1.19) and Palermo's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.65
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Spal xG
Total xG
2.83
1.18
Palermo xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
5%
20.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Spal and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Spal and 1.18 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spal come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 7D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.00 PPG, Palermo on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spal's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Spal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spal are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 0.94 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo in 25%.
Defensively: Spal have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Palermo in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Palermo in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 3W 7D 6L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Palermo have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Palermo away?
Spal's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.43 PPG; Palermo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Spal or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Palermo in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spal and Palermo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spal
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Palermo 2-1 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 43%, Palermo 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Spal) and 43% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Spal keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Palermo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Spal's recent matches and 29% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Spal's recent games and 43% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Palermo tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Palermo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 17, as Spal and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.66 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.19 / defence 1.21 against Palermo attack 0.87 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 47% | Draw 27% | Palermo 26%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 38%, Palermo 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.00 PPG, Palermo 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.