Spal 2-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Paolo Mazza plays host to Spal versus Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Spal (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Spal against 0.60 for Cosenza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spal have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cosenza in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spal lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Spal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Spal — key trading statistics (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Cosenza — key trading statistics (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 58% versus Cosenza 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 48% | Cosenza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.42 xG and Cosenza 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 0.957 / defence 1.433 | Cosenza attack 0.697 / defence 1.414. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.037. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.414 — this is suppressing Spal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Spal games / 31 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 43% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 25%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Cosenza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spal are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Spal 60% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 43% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Spal 1.42 / Cosenza 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 0.957 / def 1.433 | Cosenza attack 0.697 / def 1.414 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Spal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cosenza xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Cosenza kick off?
Spal vs Cosenza kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Cosenza?
Spal 2 - 2 Cosenza.
Where is Spal vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Cosenza part of?
Spal vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 43% chance of winning, Cosenza a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spal and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 1W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Spal and Cosenza in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spal's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.70x) against Spal's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
43%
2.33
33%
3.07
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Spal xG
Total xG
2.46
1.04
Cosenza xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Spal and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Spal and 1.04 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spal's recent record stands at 7W 12D 12L from 31 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 17L across 31 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Spal against 0.77 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spal have managed 3W 6D 7L from 16 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 6D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spal are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.87 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 7W 12D 12L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 5W 9D 17L in their last 31 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Cosenza away?
Spal's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 0.94 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spal won 5-0 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spal have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spal
1
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Cosenza 1-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Cosenza?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 69%, Cosenza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spal) and 38% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Spal's games and 56% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Spal's recent games and 38% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Cosenza tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal and Cosenza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 33, as Spal and Cosenza drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.42 xG and Cosenza 1.04 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 0.96 / defence 1.43 against Cosenza attack 0.70 / defence 1.41, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 43% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 25%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 48%, Cosenza 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.06 PPG, Cosenza 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.