Spal 1-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 3 as Spal welcome Cagliari to Stadio Paolo Mazza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spal have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spal's home record at Stadio Paolo Mazza: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Spal) versus 0.90 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spal register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cagliari in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Spal in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spal 60% and Cagliari 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 48% | Cagliari 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.45 xG and Cagliari 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.027 / defence 1.284 | Cagliari attack 0.855 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.074. Data: 40 Spal games / 2 Cagliari games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Spal 42% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 29%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Cagliari 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spal at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spal 60% | Cagliari 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 42% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Spal 1.45 / Cagliari 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.027 / def 1.284 | Cagliari attack 0.855 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Spal (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cagliari xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Cagliari kick off?
Spal vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Cagliari?
Spal 1 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Spal vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Cagliari part of?
Spal vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 42% chance of winning, Cagliari a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Spal and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Cagliari in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spal's attack rating (1.03) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.52
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Spal xG
Total xG
2.63
1.18
Cagliari xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Spal and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Spal and 1.18 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spal's recent record stands at 9W 16D 15L from 40 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 20L across 40 games — 0.85 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.08 PPG, Cagliari on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spal have managed 4W 8D 8L from 20 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 3W 7D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spal are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.92 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spal have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Cagliari in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Early Season
Cagliari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 9W 16D 15L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 7W 13D 20L in their last 40 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Cagliari away?
Spal's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.00 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spal and Cagliari runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spal
0
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Cagliari have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Cagliari 2-1 Spal.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 70%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Spal) and 45% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Spal's games and 50% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Spal's recent games and 45% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Cagliari tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spal edge out Cagliari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.45 xG and Cagliari 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.03 / defence 1.28 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Spal 42% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 29%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 48%, Cagliari 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cagliari's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.08 PPG, Cagliari 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spal win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.