Sassuolo 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Sassuolo versus Bari in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sassuolo have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sassuolo at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Sassuolo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bari (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bari away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Sassuolo's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Sassuolo, 0 for Bari and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2024, ended Sassuolo 1–1 Bari — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 58% versus Bari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 54% | Bari 35%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sassuolo surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Bari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.66 xG and Bari 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.512 / defence 0.908 | Bari attack 0.829 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.054. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.512 — their 1.66 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 28 games and Bari's last 66.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 56% | Draw 27% | Bari 16%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.77 | Draw 3.66 | Bari 6.17. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 40% (last 10 home games) | Bari 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 29 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 56% | Draw 27% | Bari 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sassuolo 1.66 / Bari 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.512 / def 0.908 | Bari attack 0.829 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sassuolo vs Bari FAQs
What time does Sassuolo vs Bari kick off?
Sassuolo vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Bari?
Sassuolo 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Sassuolo vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Bari part of?
Sassuolo vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 56% chance of winning, Bari a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sassuolo and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sassuolo vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.83x) against Sassuolo's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Sassuolo's last 28 games and Bari's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.66
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.45
0.79
Bari xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
3%
32.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sassuolo vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.79 for Bari, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Bari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 27W 14D 25L from 66 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 16W 31D 19L across 66 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.20 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 17W 6D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 5W 14D 13L across their last 32 away games, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.09 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
Sassuolo (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sassuolo
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Sassuolo vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Sassuolo and Bari in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 27W 14D 25L in their last 66 games (1.44 PPG), while Bari have gone 16W 31D 19L in their last 66 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Bari away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.78 PPG; Bari away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Sassuolo and Bari, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
2
Draws
0
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Sassuolo vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bari?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sassuolo have won 0, Bari have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Sassuolo 1-1 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 56%, Bari 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sassuolo) and 38% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bari in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sassuolo vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sassuolo and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 53% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sassuolo and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sassuolo's recent games and 38% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 66% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 29, as Sassuolo and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.66 xG and Bari 0.79 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.51 / defence 0.91 against Bari attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 56% | Draw 27% | Bari 16%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 54%, Bari 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.44 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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