Sampdoria 1-1 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Virtus Entella at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sampdoria at 1.10 PPG versus Virtus Entella's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Virtus Entella and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Virtus Entella winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 63% versus Virtus Entella 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 42% | Virtus Entella 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.70 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.983 / defence 1.007 | Virtus Entella attack 0.709 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.018. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Sampdoria games / 19 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 60% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Virtus Entella 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sampdoria (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 50% | Virtus Entella 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 60% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Sampdoria 1.70 / Virtus Entella 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.983 / def 1.007 | Virtus Entella attack 0.709 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Virtus Entella xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Sampdoria 1 - 1 Virtus Entella.
Where is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella part of?
Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 60% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sampdoria and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Virtus Entella 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.98x the league average against Virtus Entella's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
60%
1.67
25%
3.95
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.43
0.73
Virtus Entella xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
3%
37.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.73 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 4W 5D 10L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Virtus Entella's form line: 4W 7D 8L from 19 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 0.89 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.89 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Virtus Entella away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.56 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-1 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella?
Virtus Entella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 56%, Virtus Entella 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sampdoria) and 44% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 33% of games; Virtus Entella in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 44% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sampdoria's recent games and 44% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sampdoria and Virtus Entella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Virtus Entella finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.70 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Virtus Entella attack 0.71 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 60% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 42%, Virtus Entella 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.89 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.