Sampdoria 4-1 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Sampdoria take on Pescara.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Sampdoria welcome Pescara to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Pescara have recorded 1W 2D 3L from 6 outings — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pescara have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 0.83 (Pescara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Pescara in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 50% and Pescara 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 33% | Pescara 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Pescara 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.711 / defence 0.964 | Pescara attack 0.819 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.119. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Sampdoria games / 6 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 38% | Draw 38% | Pescara 24%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Pescara 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 20% | Pescara 83%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 38% | Draw 38% | Pescara 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Sampdoria 1.15 / Pescara 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.711 / def 0.964 | Pescara attack 0.819 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pescara xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Pescara kick off?
Sampdoria vs Pescara kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Pescara?
Sampdoria 4 - 1 Pescara.
Where is Sampdoria vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Pescara part of?
Sampdoria vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 38% chance of winning, Pescara a 24% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sampdoria and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Pescara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Pescara in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Pescara (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.71) and Pescara's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pescara's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.65
38%
2.62
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.03
0.88
Pescara xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.88 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Pescara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pescara, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pescara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pescara by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Pescara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Pescara in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while Pescara have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
0
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 2, Pescara have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Pescara 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Pescara?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sampdoria at 50%, Pescara at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sampdoria) and 83% (Pescara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sampdoria's games and 83% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Sampdoria's matches and 83% of Pescara's.
Do Sampdoria and Pescara tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pescara in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sampdoria run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pescara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Pescara 4-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Pescara 0.88 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.71 / defence 0.96 against Pescara attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 38% | Draw 38% | Pescara 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 33%, Pescara 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Pescara's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pescara arrived the stronger side — 0.83 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Pescara shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.