Sampdoria vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Modena at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Modena have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 1.10 (Modena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Sampdoria hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Modena, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Sampdoria winning.
The historical record gives Sampdoria a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Modena trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Modena 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 40% | Modena 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.07 xG and Modena 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.930 / defence 1.083 | Modena attack 1.176 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Sampdoria games / 40 Modena games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 26% | Draw 28% | Modena 46%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Modena 2.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 30% | Modena 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 26% | Draw 28% | Modena 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Sampdoria 1.07 / Modena 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.930 / def 1.083 | Modena attack 1.176 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Modena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Modena xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Modena kick off?
Sampdoria vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Modena part of?
Sampdoria vs Modena is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 26% chance of winning, Modena a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sampdoria and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
Record (6 meetings): Sampdoria 4W | Draws 1 | Modena 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.93x the league average against Modena's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
26%
3.86
28%
3.57
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.57
1.50
Modena xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.30
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.50 for Modena, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 12D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (16W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.12 PPG, Modena on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.30 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Modena in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Modena have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Modena away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.60 PPG; Modena away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Modena in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 4, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Modena?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 45%, Modena 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sampdoria) and 40% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 30% of games; Modena in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 45% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sampdoria's recent games and 40% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Modena tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Modena in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.