Sampdoria vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Empoli at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sampdoria 1.40 PPG, Empoli 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Empoli and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Empoli trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Empoli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 40% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.50 xG and Empoli 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.930 / defence 1.083 | Empoli attack 0.943 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Sampdoria games / 40 Empoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 43% | Draw 28% | Empoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Empoli 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 30% | Empoli 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 43% | Draw 28% | Empoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Sampdoria 1.50 / Empoli 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.930 / def 1.083 | Empoli attack 0.943 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Empoli xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Empoli kick off?
Sampdoria vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Empoli part of?
Sampdoria vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 43% chance of winning, Empoli a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sampdoria and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Empoli?
Record (6 meetings): Sampdoria 3W | Draws 2 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Empoli in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.93) and Empoli's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.62
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.71
1.20
Empoli xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.20 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 12D 17L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli's form line: 10W 14D 16L from 40 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.12 PPG, Empoli on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Empoli have gone 4W 3D 13L from 20 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Empoli in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Empoli away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.60 PPG; Empoli away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Empoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2021, when Sampdoria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
2
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Empoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Empoli?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 45%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sampdoria) and 60% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 30% of games; Empoli in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sampdoria's recent games and 60% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Empoli tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Empoli in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.