Sampdoria 1-2 Arezzo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria at Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Arezzo have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Arezzo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.17 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Sampdoria, 1.17 for Arezzo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Arezzo — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 83% and Arezzo 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sampdoria 67% | Arezzo 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.63 xG and Arezzo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.991 / defence 1.016 | Arezzo attack 0.794 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Sampdoria games / 6 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 50% | Draw 27% | Arezzo 23%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Arezzo 4.35. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 40% | Arezzo 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 50% | Draw 27% | Arezzo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Sampdoria 1.63 / Arezzo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.991 / def 1.016 | Arezzo attack 0.794 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Arezzo xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Arezzo kick off?
Sampdoria vs Arezzo kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Arezzo?
Sampdoria 1 - 2 Arezzo.
Where is Sampdoria vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Arezzo part of?
Sampdoria vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 50% chance of winning, Arezzo a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sampdoria and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Arezzo in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Arezzo (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.99) and Arezzo's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arezzo's attack (0.79x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.71
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.65
1.02
Arezzo xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
4%
22.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.02 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 1W 1D 4L from 6 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arezzo, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arezzo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 1.00 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Arezzo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Sampdoria or Arezzo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Arezzo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
0
Draws
1
Arezzo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Arezzo?
From 1 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Arezzo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Arezzo last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Sampdoria 1-2 Arezzo.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Arezzo?
Arezzo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Sampdoria, 50% for Arezzo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sampdoria and 67% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo in 33%; Arezzo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Arezzo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Sampdoria's games and 50% of Arezzo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sampdoria's matches and 67% of Arezzo's.
Do Sampdoria and Arezzo tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arezzo defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arezzo beat Sampdoria 1-2 at Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.63 xG and Arezzo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Arezzo outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Arezzo attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 50% | Draw 27% | Arezzo 23%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Arezzo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 67%, Arezzo 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Arezzo's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arezzo arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arezzo scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.