Salernitana 2-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Arechi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggiana's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Reggiana are 0.70 PPG clear of Salernitana in recent Serie B fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Salernitana lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Salernitana — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Reggiana — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 56% versus Reggiana 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 58% | Reggiana 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.05 xG and Reggiana 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.900 / defence 1.306 | Reggiana attack 1.077 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.040. Data: 21 Salernitana games / 59 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 24% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 44%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Reggiana 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 60% | Reggiana 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 24% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Salernitana 1.05 / Reggiana 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.900 / def 1.306 | Reggiana attack 1.077 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Reggiana xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Reggiana kick off?
Salernitana vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Salernitana 2 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Salernitana vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Reggiana part of?
Salernitana vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 24% chance of winning, Reggiana a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Salernitana and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Salernitana and Reggiana in?
Salernitana (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.90x the league average against Reggiana's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (1.08x) against Salernitana's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
24%
4.12
32%
3.14
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.51
1.46
Reggiana xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.79
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.46 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana's recent record stands at 6W 17D 36L from 59 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 16W 24D 19L across 59 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggiana by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 4W 7D 18L from 29 games — 0.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggiana's away record stands at 10W 9D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 6W 17D 36L in their last 59 games (0.59 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 16W 24D 19L in their last 59 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.66 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Reggiana in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Reggiana?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Reggiana have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Salernitana 2-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Reggiana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 66%, Reggiana 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Salernitana) and 41% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 34%; Salernitana have failed to score in 34% of games; Reggiana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Salernitana's recent matches and 41% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Salernitana's recent games and 41% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Reggiana tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Reggiana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.05 xG and Reggiana 1.46 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Reggiana attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 24% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 44%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 58%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.59. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.