Salernitana 1-1 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salernitana at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 11 as Salernitana welcome Cesena to Stadio Arechi. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Serie B this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Salernitana) versus 1.40 (Cesena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Salernitana register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cesena in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cesena in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Salernitana 50% and Cesena 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 50% | Cesena 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.33 xG and Cesena 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.889 / defence 1.293 | Cesena attack 0.787 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.122. Data: 10 Salernitana games / 10 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 39% | Draw 32% | Cesena 30%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Cesena 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salernitana as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 60% | Cesena 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 39% | Draw 32% | Cesena 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Salernitana 1.33 / Cesena 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.889 / def 1.293 | Cesena attack 0.787 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cesena xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Cesena kick off?
Salernitana vs Cesena kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Cesena?
Salernitana 1 - 1 Cesena.
Where is Salernitana vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Cesena part of?
Salernitana vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 39% chance of winning, Cesena a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Salernitana and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Cesena in?
Salernitana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Cesena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Salernitana vs Cesena?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.89) and Cesena's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.16
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.48
1.14
Cesena xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.14 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salernitana's recent record stands at 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 4L across 10 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salernitana on 1.10 PPG, Cesena on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salernitana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salernitana are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.80 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Cesena in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Cesena have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Cesena away?
Salernitana's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.00 PPG; Cesena away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cesena in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Salernitana
1
Draws
1
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Cesena?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Cesena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Cesena 2-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salernitana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 50%, Cesena 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Salernitana and 75% for Cesena. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Salernitana's games and 75% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Salernitana's matches and 75% of Cesena's.
Do Salernitana and Cesena tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cesena in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana and Cesena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana and Cesena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.33 xG and Cesena 1.14 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.89 / defence 1.29 against Cesena attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 39% | Draw 32% | Cesena 30%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 50%, Cesena 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cesena's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 1.10 PPG, Cesena 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.