Reggina 0-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Oreste Granillo to take on Reggina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggina stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 2W 8D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggina 1.40 PPG, Pisa 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Reggina, 1 for Pisa and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Reggina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Reggina in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 36% versus Pisa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 43% | Pisa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.13 xG and Pisa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.117 / defence 1.082 | Pisa attack 0.968 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.029. Data: 61 Reggina games / 61 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 36% | Draw 30% | Pisa 34%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 40% | Pisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 36% | Draw 30% | Pisa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Reggina 1.13 / Pisa 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.117 / def 1.082 | Pisa attack 0.968 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Reggina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pisa xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Pisa kick off?
Reggina vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Pisa?
Reggina 0 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Reggina vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Pisa part of?
Reggina vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 36% chance of winning, Pisa a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Reggina and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Reggina 2W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Reggina and Pisa in?
Reggina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reggina's attack rating (1.12) and Pisa's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.33
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.20
1.08
Pisa xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Reggina and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Reggina and 1.08 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggina come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 12D 24L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.46 PPG from 61 outings (22W 23D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.43 PPG, Pisa on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reggina's home form reads 15W 4D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (8W 12D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggina are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.25 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Pisa in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 25W 12D 24L in their last 61 games (1.43 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 23D 16L in their last 61 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Pisa away?
Reggina's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.63 PPG; Pisa away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Reggina or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Pisa in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggina and Pisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggina's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Reggina 0-2 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 37%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Reggina) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pisa in 33%; Reggina have failed to score in 33% of games; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Reggina's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Reggina's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Pisa tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pisa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Reggina 0-2 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.13 xG and Pisa 1.08 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reggina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Pisa outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.12 / defence 1.08 against Pisa attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 36% | Draw 30% | Pisa 34%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 43%, Pisa 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.43 PPG, Pisa 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.