Reggina 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Oreste Granillo to take on Reggina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 14:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggina stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reggina, 1 for Pisa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reggina in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 36% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 36% | Pisa 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 0.75 xG and Pisa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.811 / defence 1.196 | Pisa attack 0.890 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.021 / away 1.158. Data: 25 Reggina games / 25 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 19% | Draw 36% | Pisa 45%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 5.26 | Draw 2.78 | Pisa 2.22. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 40% | Pisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 19% | Draw 36% | Pisa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Reggina 0.75 / Pisa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.811 / def 1.196 | Pisa attack 0.890 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.021 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Pisa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Pisa xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Pisa kick off?
Reggina vs Pisa kicked off at 14:35 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Pisa?
Reggina 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Reggina vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Pisa part of?
Reggina vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 19% chance of winning, Pisa a 45% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Reggina and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Reggina and Pisa in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.81) and Pisa's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
19%
5.14
36%
2.80
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Reggina xG
Total xG
1.98
1.23
Pisa xG
5.14
19%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
6%
17.64
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 17.0 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Reggina and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Reggina and 1.23 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggina come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 5D 11L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (12W 10D 3L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Reggina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reggina's home form reads 5W 2D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.83 points per game from 12 outings (6W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggina are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.28 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Pisa in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Pisa have gone 12W 10D 3L in their last 25 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.42 PPG; Pisa away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Reggina or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Pisa in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggina and Pisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggina's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Reggina 0-2 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 42%, Pisa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reggina) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pisa in 33%; Reggina have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Reggina's recent matches and 58% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggina's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Pisa tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pisa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggina defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 0.75 xG and Pisa 1.23 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Pisa attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 19% | Draw 36% | Pisa 45%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Reggina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 36%, Pisa 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Reggina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.