Reggina 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Oreste Granillo plays host to Reggina versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggina have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Reggina have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Cremonese (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Reggina against 1.60 for Cremonese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 42% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 25% | Cremonese 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.07 xG and Cremonese 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.917 / defence 1.032 | Cremonese attack 0.788 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.142. Data: 12 Reggina games / 12 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 37% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 29%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Cremonese 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggina are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 50% | Cremonese 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 37% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Reggina 1.07 / Cremonese 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.917 / def 1.032 | Cremonese attack 0.788 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Reggina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cremonese xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Cremonese kick off?
Reggina vs Cremonese kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Cremonese?
Reggina 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Reggina vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Cremonese part of?
Reggina vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 37% chance of winning, Cremonese a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Reggina and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Cremonese in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reggina's attack at 0.92x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.79x) against Reggina's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
37%
2.71
34%
2.98
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.00
0.93
Cremonese xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Reggina and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Reggina and 0.93 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggina come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 4D 2L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Reggina against 1.58 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reggina's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.25 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Cremonese away?
Reggina's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 2.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Reggina or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cremonese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggina
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Cremonese 1-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 60%, Cremonese 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Reggina) and 40% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Reggina have failed to score in 40% of games; Cremonese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Reggina's recent matches and 40% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Reggina's recent games and 40% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Cremonese tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Reggina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Reggina 1-2 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.07 xG and Cremonese 0.93 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Cremonese attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 37% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 29%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 25%, Cremonese 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.83 PPG, Cremonese 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.