Reggiana 1-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 38%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reggiana vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Sampdoria in Serie B (matchday 17). Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Reggiana have posted 1W 6D 1L from their last 8 home games — 1.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Sampdoria are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Reggiana's last 8 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 75% of Reggiana's games and 70% of Sampdoria's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 56% versus Sampdoria 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 44% | Sampdoria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.25 xG and Sampdoria 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.861 / defence 1.065 | Sampdoria attack 0.915 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.133. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 16 games and Sampdoria's last 16.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 38% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 31%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.61 | Draw 3.30 | Sampdoria 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggiana as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Reggiana 75% (last 8 home games) | Sampdoria 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 17 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 38% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Reggiana 1.25 / Sampdoria 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.861 / def 1.065 | Sampdoria attack 0.915 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sampdoria xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Sampdoria kick off?
Reggiana vs Sampdoria kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Reggiana 1 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Reggiana vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Sampdoria part of?
Reggiana vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 17) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 38% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reggiana and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Reggiana vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.92x) against Reggiana's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 16 games and Sampdoria's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.30
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Sampdoria xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.10 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 3W 8D 5L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 6W 3D 7L from 16 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Reggiana against 1.31 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 8 home games (1W 6D 1L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 3D 3L from their last 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.19 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 62%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 3W 8D 5L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Sampdoria away?
Reggiana's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.12 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
1
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sampdoria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 2, Sampdoria have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Reggiana 1-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Reggiana, 75% for Sampdoria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Reggiana and 38% for Sampdoria.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Sampdoria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Reggiana's games and 75% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Reggiana's recent games and 38% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Reggiana's recent matches and 75% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Reggiana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Reggiana 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.25 xG and Sampdoria 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Sampdoria attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 38% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 31%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 44%, Sampdoria 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.06 PPG, Sampdoria 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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