Reggiana 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reggiana and Frosinone meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reggiana's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggiana have posted 5W 3D 2L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Reggiana are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Frosinone are 0.50 PPG clear of Reggiana in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reggiana lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 59% versus Frosinone 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 51% | Frosinone 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.21 xG and Frosinone 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 1.020 / defence 0.926 | Frosinone attack 1.302 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.071. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Reggiana games / 51 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 32% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 36%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Frosinone 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 70% | Frosinone 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 32% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Reggiana 1.21 / Frosinone 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 1.020 / def 0.926 | Frosinone attack 1.302 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Frosinone xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Frosinone kick off?
Reggiana vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Frosinone?
Reggiana 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Reggiana vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Frosinone part of?
Reggiana vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 32% chance of winning, Frosinone a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Reggiana and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Reggiana 1W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Frosinone in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Reggiana's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.30x) against Reggiana's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
32%
3.14
32%
3.11
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.50
1.29
Frosinone xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.29 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana's recent record stands at 15W 16D 20L from 51 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 15L across 51 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Reggiana against 1.33 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 9W 9D 7L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Frosinone's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 15W 16D 20L in their last 51 games (1.20 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 16W 20D 15L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Frosinone away?
Reggiana's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.44 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
1
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 1, Frosinone have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Frosinone 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 56%, Frosinone 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reggiana) and 32% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 32%; Reggiana have failed to score in 32% of games; Frosinone in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Reggiana's recent matches and 44% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reggiana's recent games and 32% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Frosinone tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Reggiana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Reggiana 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.21 xG and Frosinone 1.29 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Frosinone attack 1.30 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 32% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 36%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 51%, Frosinone 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.20 PPG, Frosinone 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.