Pordenone 0-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pordenone vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cittadella make the trip to Stadio Guido Teghil to face Pordenone in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pordenone have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pordenone have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadio Guido Teghil — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cittadella (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Pordenone against 1.30 for Cittadella. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pordenone lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Cittadella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Pordenone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 54% versus Cittadella 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pordenone 46% | Cittadella 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.90 xG and Cittadella 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.819 / defence 1.318 | Cittadella attack 0.804 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.133. Data: 22 Pordenone games / 22 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 39%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Cittadella 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cittadella as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Pordenone 60% | Cittadella 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Pordenone 0.90 / Cittadella 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.819 / def 1.318 | Cittadella attack 0.804 / def 1.141 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cittadella xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Cittadella kick off?
Pordenone vs Cittadella kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Cittadella?
Pordenone 0 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Pordenone vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Cittadella part of?
Pordenone vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 24% chance of winning, Cittadella a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pordenone and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Pordenone 0W | Draws 0 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Pordenone and Cittadella in?
Pordenone (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Cittadella (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pordenone's attack rating (0.82) and Cittadella's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.80x) against Pordenone's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
24%
4.12
36%
2.76
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.10
1.20
Cittadella xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.20 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pordenone's recent record stands at 2W 6D 14L from 22 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 6L across 22 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cittadella by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pordenone have managed 1W 4D 6L from 11 games — 0.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cittadella's away record stands at 3W 5D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pordenone are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.14 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 2W 6D 14L in their last 22 games (0.55 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 8W 8D 6L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.64 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Pordenone or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pordenone have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Cittadella in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
0
Draws
2
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Cittadella?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Cittadella have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2022, when Pordenone 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 54%, Cittadella 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Pordenone and 18% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Cittadella in 36%; Pordenone have failed to score in 36% of games; Cittadella in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pordenone's recent matches and 46% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Pordenone's recent games and 18% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Cittadella tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cittadella edge out Pordenone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Pordenone 0-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.90 xG and Cittadella 1.20 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pordenone fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.82 / defence 1.32 against Cittadella attack 0.80 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 24% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 39%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 46%, Cittadella 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.55. That form edge translated into the three points. Pordenone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.