Pisa 3-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Ternana at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ternana — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ternana in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pisa, 0 for Ternana and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 55% versus Ternana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 37% | Ternana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.56 xG and Ternana 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.139 / defence 1.048 | Ternana attack 1.174 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.107. Data: 51 Pisa games / 51 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 41% | Draw 27% | Ternana 32%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Ternana 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ternana (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 41% | Draw 27% | Ternana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Pisa 1.56 / Ternana 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.139 / def 1.048 | Ternana attack 1.174 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Pisa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ternana xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Ternana kick off?
Pisa vs Ternana kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Ternana?
Pisa 3 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Pisa vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Ternana part of?
Pisa vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 41% chance of winning, Ternana a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pisa and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ternana?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 1 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Pisa and Ternana in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Ternana (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.67
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.92
1.36
Ternana xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Pisa and 1.36 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 18W 19D 14L from 51 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 17L across 51 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.43 PPG, Ternana on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 11W 10D 4L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.47 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Ternana in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 18W 19D 14L in their last 51 games (1.43 PPG), while Ternana have gone 21W 13D 17L in their last 51 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Ternana away?
Pisa's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.72 PPG; Ternana away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Pisa or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ternana in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Pisa won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
2
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Ternana have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Pisa 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Ternana?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 52%, Ternana at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pisa) and 60% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Pisa's games and 80% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pisa's recent games and 60% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Ternana tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ternana in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Ternana 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.56 xG and Ternana 1.36 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against Ternana attack 1.17 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 41% | Draw 27% | Ternana 32%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 37%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.43 PPG, Ternana 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.