Pisa 3-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 44%, yet in-form Sassuolo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Pisa welcome Sassuolo to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 6W 4D 0L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sassuolo — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sassuolo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 66% and Sassuolo 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 55% | Sassuolo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.53 xG and Sassuolo 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.335 / defence 0.874 | Sassuolo attack 1.267 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.055. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sassuolo have an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Pisa games / 18 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Sassuolo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sassuolo (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Sassuolo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Pisa 1.53 / Sassuolo 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.335 / def 0.874 | Sassuolo attack 1.267 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Pisa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sassuolo xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Sassuolo kick off?
Pisa vs Sassuolo kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Pisa 3 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Pisa vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Sassuolo part of?
Pisa vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 44% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pisa and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Sassuolo in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.48
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
Sassuolo xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Pisa and 1.17 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 18D 17L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.30 PPG from 56 outings (20W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.45 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 12W 11D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.48 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 21W 18D 17L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 20W 13D 23L in their last 56 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Sassuolo away?
Pisa's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.68 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sassuolo?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Sassuolo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Pisa 1-3 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 71%, Sassuolo at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Pisa) and 54% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pisa's games and 61% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Pisa's matches and 54% of Sassuolo's.
Do Pisa and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Sassuolo 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.53 xG and Sassuolo 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.33 / defence 0.87 against Sassuolo attack 1.27 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 27%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Sassuolo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.45 PPG, Sassuolo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.