Pisa 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Pisa take on Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Parma (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Pisa's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pisa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Parma in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pisa 0W, Parma 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 54% versus Parma 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 29% | Parma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.10 xG and Parma 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.906 / defence 1.040 | Parma attack 0.814 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.169. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Pisa games / 24 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 36% | Parma 29%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Parma 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 60% | Parma 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 36% | Parma 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Pisa 1.10 / Parma 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.906 / def 1.040 | Parma attack 0.814 / def 1.259 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Parma xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Parma kick off?
Pisa vs Parma kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Parma?
Pisa 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Pisa vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Parma part of?
Pisa vs Parma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 35% chance of winning, Parma a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pisa and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Pisa and Parma in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.91) and Parma's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.81x) against Pisa's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
36%
2.76
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.09
0.99
Parma xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pisa and 0.99 for Parma, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 24 games, going 12W 9D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (6W 10D 8L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 6W 5D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.17 points per game from 12 outings (3W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.21 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Parma in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 12W 9D 3L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Parma have gone 6W 10D 8L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Parma away?
Pisa's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.92 PPG; Parma away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Pisa or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Parma in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Pisa
3
Draws
4
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Parma?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Parma have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Parma 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Pisa) and 67% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Parma in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 58% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Pisa's recent games and 67% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Parma tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Parma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Parma finished level at 0-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.10 xG and Parma 0.99 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pisa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Parma attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 35% | Draw 36% | Parma 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 29%, Parma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Parma's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.