Pisa 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Palermo at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.80 PPG, Palermo 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for Palermo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Palermo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 44% | Palermo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.69 xG and Palermo 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.169 / defence 1.041 | Palermo attack 1.020 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 0.992. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Pisa games / 27 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 51% | Draw 26% | Palermo 22%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Palermo 4.55. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Palermo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 51% | Draw 26% | Palermo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Pisa 1.69 / Palermo 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.169 / def 1.041 | Palermo attack 1.020 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.137 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Pisa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Palermo xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Palermo kick off?
Pisa vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Pisa 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Pisa vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Palermo part of?
Pisa vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 51% chance of winning, Palermo a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pisa and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Pisa and Palermo in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.79
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.75
1.05
Palermo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
4%
24.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Pisa and 1.05 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 10W 11D 6L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 9W 10D 8L from 27 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.52 PPG, Palermo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.07 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Palermo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 10W 11D 6L in their last 27 games (1.52 PPG), while Palermo have gone 9W 10D 8L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Palermo away?
Pisa's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.62 PPG; Palermo away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Pisa or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palermo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Palermo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Pisa's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
2
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Palermo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Palermo 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Palermo?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 54%, Palermo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pisa) and 38% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 31% of games; Palermo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pisa's recent matches and 54% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Pisa's recent games and 38% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Palermo tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Palermo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 28, as Pisa and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.69 xG and Palermo 1.05 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.17 / defence 1.04 against Palermo attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 51% | Draw 26% | Palermo 22%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Palermo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.52 PPG, Palermo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.