Pisa 3-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Pisa, 1.70 for Juve Stabia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pisa, 1 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 54% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Juve Stabia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.51 xG and Juve Stabia 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.137 / defence 0.893 | Juve Stabia attack 0.806 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.078. Data: 64 Pisa games / 26 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 53% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 17%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 5.88. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 50% | Juve Stabia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 53% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Pisa 1.51 / Juve Stabia 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.137 / def 0.893 | Juve Stabia attack 0.806 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Pisa (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Juve Stabia xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Pisa vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Juve Stabia?
Pisa 3 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Pisa vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Juve Stabia part of?
Pisa vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 53% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pisa and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Pisa and Juve Stabia in?
Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.14) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.81x) against Pisa's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
53%
1.90
30%
3.32
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.28
0.78
Juve Stabia xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
4%
26.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pisa and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Pisa and 0.78 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 26 games, going 15W 7D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (10W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 9W 3D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.19 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 7D 4L in their last 26 games (2.00 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 10W 9D 7L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Juve Stabia away?
Pisa's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.31 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Pisa or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Pisa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won 0-3 on 6 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Pisa
0
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Juve Stabia?
From 3 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Juve Stabia 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Juve Stabia?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 54%, Juve Stabia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Pisa) and 46% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pisa's recent matches and 54% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Pisa's recent games and 46% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Juve Stabia 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.51 xG and Juve Stabia 0.78 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Juve Stabia attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 53% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 17%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Juve Stabia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.