Pisa 3-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Pisa welcome Cremonese to Arena Garibaldi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 2W 0D 8L at Arena Garibaldi — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.00 PPG versus Cremonese's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Pisa, 2 for Cremonese and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 43% versus Cremonese 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 57% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.08 xG and Cremonese 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.805 / defence 1.347 | Cremonese attack 0.673 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.253. Data: 6 Pisa games / 6 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 33% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 36%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 33% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Pisa 1.08 / Cremonese 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.805 / def 1.347 | Cremonese attack 0.673 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cremonese kick off?
Pisa vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Arena Garibaldi.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Pisa 3 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Pisa vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi.
What competition is Pisa vs Cremonese part of?
Pisa vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 33% chance of winning, Cremonese a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pisa and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
Record (8 meetings): Pisa 4W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.81x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
33%
3.01
31%
3.22
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.22
1.14
Cremonese xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Pisa and 1.14 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 5W 13D 26L from 44 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 22L across 44 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 0.64 PPG, Cremonese on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 3W 4D 15L from 22 games — 0.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.84 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 5W 13D 26L in their last 44 games (0.64 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 9W 13D 22L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.59 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
From 9 meetings on record, Pisa have won 5, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Pisa 3-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cremonese?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Pisa 36% BTTS, Cremonese 32%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Pisa) and 41% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 59% of games; Cremonese in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Pisa's recent matches and 32% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Pisa's recent games and 41% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cremonese tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cremonese 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.08 xG and Cremonese 1.14 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.81 / defence 1.35 against Cremonese attack 0.67 / defence 1.02, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 33% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 36%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 57%, Cremonese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 0.64 PPG, Cremonese 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.