Pisa 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cremonese at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Cremonese encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Pisa welcome Cremonese to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Pisa — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Pisa have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cremonese's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 100% of Pisa's games and 60% of Cremonese's (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Pisa have won 1, Cremonese 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Mar 2022, ended Pisa 3–0 Cremonese — a Pisa win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Cremonese in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 58% versus Cremonese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 44% | Cremonese 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.10 xG and Cremonese 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.024 / defence 1.124 | Cremonese attack 1.336 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.184. Cremonese have an above-average attack rating of 1.336, which lifts their away xG to 1.78. Data: built from Pisa's last 52 games and Cremonese's last 14.

Result probabilities: Pisa 21% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 51%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.70 | Draw 3.65 | Cremonese 1.95. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 100% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 60% (last 10 away games).

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