Pisa 1-2 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 36%, yet in-form Bari provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Bari at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bari — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bari's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bari — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pisa have won 0, Bari 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 48% versus Bari 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 39% | Bari 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.01 xG and Bari 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.052 / defence 0.901 | Bari attack 1.018 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 0.961. Data: 71 Pisa games / 33 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 36% | Draw 35% | Bari 29%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Bari 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bari (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Bari 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 36% | Draw 35% | Bari 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Pisa 1.01 / Bari 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.052 / def 0.901 | Bari attack 1.018 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.114 / away 0.961 • Poisson stance: Pisa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bari xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Bari kick off?
Pisa vs Bari kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Bari?
Pisa 1 - 2 Bari.
Where is Pisa vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Bari part of?
Pisa vs Bari is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 36% chance of winning, Bari a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pisa and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Pisa and Bari in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Bari (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
36%
2.76
35%
2.88
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.90
0.88
Bari xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Pisa and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pisa and 0.88 for Bari, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 13D 9L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.73 PPG from 33 outings (15W 12D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.39 PPG, Bari on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 7W 5D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.94 points per game from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.52 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Bari in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Bari in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 11W 13D 9L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Bari have gone 15W 12D 6L in their last 33 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.62 PPG; Bari away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Pisa or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bari in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Pisa
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Bari 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Bari 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pisa) and 31% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bari in 44%; Pisa have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 38% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pisa's recent games and 31% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Bari tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bari in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.01 xG and Bari 0.88 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bari outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Bari attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 36% | Draw 35% | Bari 29%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 39%, Bari 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bari's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.39 PPG, Bari 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.