Pescara 2-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Pescara take on Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia plays host to Pescara versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pescara have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Venezia arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Pescara have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Venezia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.02 xG and Venezia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 0.868 / defence 1.366 | Venezia attack 0.735 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.051. Data: 2 Pescara games / 2 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pescara 30% | Draw 38% | Venezia 32%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | Venezia 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 30% | Draw 38% | Venezia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Pescara 1.02 / Venezia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 0.868 / def 1.366 | Venezia attack 0.735 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Venezia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Venezia kick off?
Pescara vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Venezia?
Pescara 2 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Pescara vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Venezia part of?
Pescara vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 30% chance of winning, Venezia a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pescara and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pescara and Venezia in?
Pescara (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Venezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pescara's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.73x) against Pescara's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
38%
2.62
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.08
1.06
Venezia xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pescara and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pescara and 1.06 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Pescara have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pescara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pescara.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pescara are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Venezia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Venezia in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Pescara or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pescara have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Venezia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
1
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 0, Venezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Venezia 3-2 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Pescara's games and 50% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Pescara's matches and 50% of Venezia's.
Do Pescara and Venezia tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Venezia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pescara and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara and Venezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.02 xG and Venezia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.87 / defence 1.37 against Venezia attack 0.73 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 30% | Draw 38% | Venezia 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 100%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pescara scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.