Pescara 0-1 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pescara at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pescara vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Padova travel to Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia to take on Pescara. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pescara have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pescara's home record at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia: 1W 4D 2L from 7 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Padova's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Pescara's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Pescara trading profile (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Padova trading profile (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 77% and Padova 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 69% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.18 xG and Padova 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 0.964 / defence 1.293 | Padova attack 0.718 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.071. Data: 13 Pescara games / 13 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 37% | Draw 34% | Padova 28%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Padova 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pescara at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Padova (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pescara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pescara 71% | Padova 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 37% | Draw 34% | Padova 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Pescara 1.18 / Padova 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 0.964 / def 1.293 | Padova attack 0.718 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Pescara (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Padova xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Padova kick off?
Pescara vs Padova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Padova?
Pescara 0 - 1 Padova.
Where is Pescara vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Padova part of?
Pescara vs Padova is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 37% chance of winning, Padova a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pescara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pescara and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pescara and Padova in?
Pescara (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Padova (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pescara's attack at 0.96x the league average against Padova's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Pescara's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pescara Win
37%
2.67
34%
2.90
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.17
0.99
Padova xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pescara and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Pescara and 0.99 for Padova, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pescara's recent record stands at 1W 6D 6L from 13 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 5L across 13 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pescara on 0.69 PPG, Padova on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pescara have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Padova's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pescara are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 0.92 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Padova in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 1W 6D 6L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Padova have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Padova away?
Padova's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 1.00 PPG; Padova away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pescara and Padova runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
0
Draws
2
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 0, Padova have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Padova 1-0 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Padova?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Padova see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 71%, Padova 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Pescara) and 29% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Padova in 43%; Padova in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pescara's games and 43% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Pescara's recent games and 29% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Padova tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Padova in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Padova defy the odds to beat Pescara 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Pescara 0-1 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.18 xG and Padova 0.99 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pescara fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.96 / defence 1.29 against Padova attack 0.72 / defence 0.92, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 37% | Draw 34% | Padova 28%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Padova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 69%, Padova 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Padova's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pescara 0.69 PPG, Padova 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.