Pescara 2-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pescara vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pescara and Mantova meet at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Pescara have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mantova (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Mantova are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pescara 0W, Mantova 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Mantova winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pescara — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Mantova — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 71% and Mantova 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 67% | Mantova 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.07 xG and Mantova 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 0.833 / defence 1.354 | Mantova attack 0.885 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.023. Data: 21 Pescara games / 59 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 31% | Draw 30% | Mantova 39%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Mantova 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pescara 60% | Mantova 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 31% | Draw 30% | Mantova 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Pescara 1.07 / Mantova 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 0.833 / def 1.354 | Mantova attack 0.885 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Mantova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Mantova xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Mantova kick off?
Pescara vs Mantova kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Mantova?
Pescara 2 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Pescara vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Mantova part of?
Pescara vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 31% chance of winning, Mantova a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pescara and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Mantova?
Record (1 meetings): Pescara 0W | Draws 0 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Pescara and Mantova in?
Pescara (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Mantova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pescara's attack at 0.83x the league average against Mantova's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.89x) against Pescara's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.35
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.30
1.23
Mantova xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pescara and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Pescara and 1.23 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pescara's recent record stands at 2W 8D 11L from 21 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 12L across 21 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Pescara against 0.90 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pescara have managed 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pescara are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 0.95 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Mantova in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 2W 8D 11L in their last 21 games (0.67 PPG), while Mantova have gone 5W 4D 12L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Mantova away?
Pescara's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 1.00 PPG; Mantova away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
1
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 0, Mantova have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Pescara 2-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Mantova see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 60%, Mantova 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pescara) and 40% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Pescara have failed to score in 30% of games; Mantova in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Pescara's recent matches and 30% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pescara vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pescara's recent games and 40% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Mantova tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mantova in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pescara and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 22, as Pescara and Mantova drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.07 xG and Mantova 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against Mantova attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 31% | Draw 30% | Mantova 39%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 67%, Mantova 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Mantova's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pescara 0.67 PPG, Mantova 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.