Perugia 1-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Perugia vs Spal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Spal travel to Stadio Renato Curi to take on Perugia. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 16 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Perugia at Stadio Renato Curi this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Spal — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Spal have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Perugia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Perugia, 0 for Spal and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Perugia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Perugia in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Spal in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 48% versus Spal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 31% | Spal 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.16 xG and Spal 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.774 / defence 0.941 | Spal attack 0.710 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.088. Perugia's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Perugia games / 29 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 43% | Draw 38% | Spal 20%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.33 | Draw 2.63 | Spal 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 30% | Spal 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 43% | Draw 38% | Spal 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Perugia 1.16 / Spal 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.774 / def 0.941 | Spal attack 0.710 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Perugia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Spal xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Spal kick off?
Perugia vs Spal kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 16 March 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Spal?
Perugia 1 - 1 Spal.
Where is Perugia vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Spal part of?
Perugia vs Spal is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 43% chance of winning, Spal a 20% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Perugia and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 0 | Spal 0W.
What form are Perugia and Spal in?
Perugia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.77) and Spal's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
43%
2.34
38%
2.66
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Perugia xG
Total xG
1.89
0.73
Spal xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Perugia and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Perugia and 0.73 for Spal, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Perugia's recent record stands at 11W 12D 6L from 29 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Spal, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 12L across 29 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Perugia by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spal heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 4W 6D 4L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spal's away record stands at 4W 4D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Perugia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.17 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Spal in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 11W 12D 6L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Spal have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Spal away?
Perugia's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.29 PPG; Spal away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Perugia or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Spal in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Perugia and Spal runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Perugia's record when hosting Spal specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
3
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Spal have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Spal 1-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Spal?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 43%, Spal 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Perugia and 36% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 29% of games; Spal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Perugia's recent matches and 36% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Perugia's recent games and 36% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Spal tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Spal in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia and Spal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Spal finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.16 xG and Spal 0.73 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.77 / defence 0.94 against Spal attack 0.71 / defence 1.45, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 43% | Draw 38% | Spal 20%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 31%, Spal 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Spal's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.