Perugia 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Perugia vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Perugia host Genoa at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Perugia — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Perugia have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Renato Curi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Genoa have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Genoa — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Perugia in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Genoa in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 51% versus Genoa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 33% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.90 xG and Genoa 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.791 / defence 1.233 | Genoa attack 1.038 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.113. Perugia's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Perugia games / 13 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 22% | Draw 30% | Genoa 48%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 2.08. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 50% | Genoa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 22% | Draw 30% | Genoa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Perugia 0.90 / Genoa 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.791 / def 1.233 | Genoa attack 1.038 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Genoa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Genoa xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Genoa kick off?
Perugia vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Genoa?
Perugia 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Perugia vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Genoa part of?
Perugia vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 22% chance of winning, Genoa a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Perugia and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Genoa in?
Perugia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Perugia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
22%
4.49
30%
3.33
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.32
1.42
Genoa xG
4.49
22%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
5%
18.65
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.0 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Perugia and 1.42 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 18D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.00 PPG from 51 outings (10W 21D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.24 PPG, Genoa on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Perugia's home form reads 7W 9D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.84 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Genoa in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 15W 18D 18L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 21D 20L in their last 51 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Genoa away?
Perugia's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.20 PPG; Genoa away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Perugia
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Genoa 2-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 48%, Genoa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Perugia and 44% for Genoa.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 28% of games; Genoa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Perugia's recent matches and 48% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Perugia's recent games and 44% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Genoa tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Genoa in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Perugia defy the odds to beat Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.90 xG and Genoa 1.42 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Genoa attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 22% | Draw 30% | Genoa 48%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Perugia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 33%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.24 PPG, Genoa 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.