Perugia 0-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Como travel to Stadio Renato Curi to take on Perugia. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 March 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Perugia — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Curi this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Como stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Perugia at 1.60 PPG versus Como's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Como have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Perugia's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Como winning.
It is worth noting that Como have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Perugia in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Como in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 47% versus Como 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 36% | Como 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.69 xG and Como 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 1.291 / defence 1.016 | Como attack 1.013 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.015. Perugia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Perugia games / 64 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 51% | Draw 26% | Como 22%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Como 4.55. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 40% | Como 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 51% | Draw 26% | Como 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Perugia 1.69 / Como 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 1.291 / def 1.016 | Como attack 1.013 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Perugia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Como xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Como kick off?
Perugia vs Como kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Como?
Perugia 0 - 0 Como.
Where is Perugia vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Como part of?
Perugia vs Como is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 51% chance of winning, Como a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Como?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Perugia and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Como?
Record (3 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 0 | Como 3W.
What form are Perugia and Como in?
Perugia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Como (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Perugia's attack rating (1.29) and Como's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
51%
1.94
26%
3.83
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Como xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
4%
24.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Perugia and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Perugia and 1.04 for Como, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 21D 22L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.22 PPG from 64 outings (18W 24D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.31 PPG, Como on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Perugia's home form reads 11W 11D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (8W 12D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.27 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Como in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 21W 21D 22L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while Como have gone 18W 24D 22L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Como away?
Perugia's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.42 PPG; Como away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Perugia or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Como in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Como won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Perugia's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Perugia
1
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Como have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Como last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2023, when Perugia 0-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 45%, Como 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Perugia) and 45% (Como).
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Perugia's recent matches and 64% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Perugia's recent games and 45% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Como tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Como in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Perugia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Como finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.69 xG and Como 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Perugia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Como landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 1.29 / defence 1.02 against Como attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 51% | Draw 26% | Como 22%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 36%, Como 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.31 PPG, Como 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.