Perugia 4-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Perugia vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Curi plays host to Perugia versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 4 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Perugia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Perugia's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Brescia's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Perugia 1W, Brescia 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 48% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 33% | Brescia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.40 xG and Brescia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 1.036 / defence 1.194 | Brescia attack 0.843 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.032. Data: 60 Perugia games / 60 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 45% | Draw 28% | Brescia 27%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Brescia 3.70. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Brescia lead the H2H ledger, but Perugia carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 50% | Brescia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 45% | Draw 28% | Brescia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Perugia 1.40 / Brescia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 1.036 / def 1.194 | Brescia attack 0.843 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Perugia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Brescia xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Brescia kick off?
Perugia vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Brescia?
Perugia 4 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Perugia vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Brescia part of?
Perugia vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 45% chance of winning, Brescia a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Perugia and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Brescia?
Record (4 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 0 | Brescia 3W.
What form are Perugia and Brescia in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Brescia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Perugia's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.84x) against Perugia's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.61
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.44
1.04
Brescia xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Perugia and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Perugia and 1.04 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Perugia come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 21D 20L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.44 PPG from 61 outings (22W 22D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Perugia against 1.44 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Perugia's home form reads 9W 11D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.38 points per game from 29 outings (10W 10D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.21 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Brescia in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 20W 21D 20L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Brescia have gone 22W 22D 17L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.31 PPG; Brescia away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Perugia or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Brescia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 4-0 on 4 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Perugia
0
Draws
3
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Brescia?
From 5 meetings on record, Perugia have won 2, Brescia have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Perugia 4-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 48%, Brescia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Perugia and 38% for Brescia.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Brescia in 31%; Perugia have failed to score in 28% of games; Brescia in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Perugia's recent matches and 52% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Perugia's recent games and 38% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Brescia tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Brescia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Perugia run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Brescia 4-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.40 xG and Brescia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Perugia beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brescia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 1.04 / defence 1.19 against Brescia attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 45% | Draw 28% | Brescia 27%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 33%, Brescia 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brescia's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.33 PPG, Brescia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.