Perugia 3-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Renato Curi to face Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Perugia (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Perugia's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Curi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Perugia are significantly better at Stadio Renato Curi than their overall form suggests.
Benevento have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Benevento's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Perugia, 1 for Benevento and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Perugia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 46% versus Benevento 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 36% | Benevento 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.11 xG and Benevento 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.818 / defence 1.310 | Benevento attack 0.829 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.029. Data: 75 Perugia games / 75 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 33% | Draw 33% | Benevento 34%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Benevento 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Benevento 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 33% | Draw 33% | Benevento 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Perugia 1.11 / Benevento 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.818 / def 1.310 | Benevento attack 0.829 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Benevento (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Benevento xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Benevento kick off?
Perugia vs Benevento kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Benevento?
Perugia 3 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Perugia vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Benevento part of?
Perugia vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 33% chance of winning, Benevento a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Perugia and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 1 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Perugia and Benevento in?
Perugia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Perugia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.83x) against Perugia's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
33%
2.99
33%
3.03
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Benevento xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Perugia and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Perugia and 1.12 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 23W 25D 28L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Benevento's form line: 26W 23D 27L from 76 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Perugia against 1.33 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Perugia have posted 1.27 PPG from 37 outings (11W 14D 12L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 11W 13D 13L from 37 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.20 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Benevento in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 23W 25D 28L in their last 76 games (1.24 PPG), while Benevento have gone 26W 23D 27L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Benevento away?
Perugia's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.27 PPG; Benevento away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Perugia or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Perugia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Perugia
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Perugia 3-2 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Benevento?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 43%, Benevento 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Perugia and 27% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 32% of games; Benevento in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Perugia's recent matches and 43% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Perugia's recent games and 27% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Benevento tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Benevento in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Perugia defy the odds to beat Benevento 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Benevento 3-2 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.11 xG and Benevento 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Perugia beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against Benevento attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 33% | Draw 33% | Benevento 34%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Perugia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 36%, Benevento 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.24 PPG, Benevento 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.