Parma 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season.
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Parma, 2.00 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Parma 0W, Venezia 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 48% versus Venezia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 39% | Venezia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.27 xG and Venezia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.025 / defence 0.819 | Venezia attack 0.986 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.029. Data: 75 Parma games / 37 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 45% | Draw 33% | Venezia 22%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Venezia 4.55. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 20% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 45% | Draw 33% | Venezia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Parma 1.27 / Venezia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.025 / def 0.819 | Venezia attack 0.986 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Parma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Venezia xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Venezia kick off?
Parma vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Venezia?
Parma 2 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Parma vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Venezia part of?
Parma vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 45% chance of winning, Venezia a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Parma and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Parma and Venezia in?
Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.02x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.99x) against Parma's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
45%
2.24
33%
3.03
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Parma xG
Total xG
2.10
0.83
Venezia xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Parma and 0.83 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Parma have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 27W 26D 22L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 19W 19D 37L from 75 games, 1.01 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.51 PPG from 37 outings (15W 11D 11L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 9W 9D 19L from 37 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 61%.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Venezia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 27W 26D 22L in their last 75 games (1.43 PPG), while Venezia have gone 19W 19D 37L in their last 75 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Venezia away?
Parma's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.51 PPG; Venezia away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Parma or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Venezia in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Parma
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Parma 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Venezia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 49%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Parma) and 43% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 27% of games; Venezia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Parma's recent matches and 54% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Parma's recent games and 43% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Venezia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Venezia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Venezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Venezia 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.27 xG and Venezia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Venezia attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 45% | Draw 33% | Venezia 22%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 39%, Venezia 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.01. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.