Palermo 0-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Venezia at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 3W 2D 2L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.57 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Palermo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Venezia trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 31% versus Venezia 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 38% | Venezia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.21 xG and Venezia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.912 / defence 1.033 | Venezia attack 0.964 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.113. Data: 13 Palermo games / 13 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 37% | Draw 32% | Venezia 32%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Venezia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 29% | Venezia 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 37% | Draw 32% | Venezia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Palermo 1.21 / Venezia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.912 / def 1.033 | Venezia attack 0.964 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Palermo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Venezia xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Venezia kick off?
Palermo vs Venezia kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Venezia?
Palermo 0 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Palermo vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Venezia part of?
Palermo vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 37% chance of winning, Venezia a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Palermo and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Venezia in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.91) and Venezia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.17
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.32
1.11
Venezia xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Palermo and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Palermo and 1.11 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 3D 6L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.69 PPG from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palermo's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.69 PPG overall record — Venezia travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 69%.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Venezia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Venezia have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Venezia away?
Palermo's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.33 PPG; Venezia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Palermo or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Venezia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Palermo
1
Draws
6
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Venezia?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Venezia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 33%, Venezia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Palermo and 33% for Venezia.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 33% of games; Venezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Palermo's recent matches and 67% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Palermo's recent games and 33% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Palermo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Palermo 0-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.21 xG and Venezia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palermo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 37% | Draw 32% | Venezia 32%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 38%, Venezia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.