Palermo 0-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palermo at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Palermo (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ternana have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Palermo's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palermo lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 46% versus Ternana 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 35% | Ternana 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.37 xG and Ternana 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.917 / defence 0.922 | Ternana attack 0.804 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.020. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Palermo games / 64 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 50% | Draw 30% | Ternana 20%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Ternana 5.00. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Ternana 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 50% | Draw 30% | Ternana 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Palermo 1.37 / Ternana 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.917 / def 0.922 | Ternana attack 0.804 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Palermo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Ternana xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Ternana kick off?
Palermo vs Ternana kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Ternana?
Palermo 0 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Palermo vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Ternana part of?
Palermo vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 50% chance of winning, Ternana a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Palermo and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Palermo and Ternana in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Ternana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.80x) against Palermo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
50%
1.98
30%
3.33
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.13
0.76
Ternana xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
5%
20.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Palermo and 0.76 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palermo's recent record stands at 9W 9D 8L from 26 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 10L across 26 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Palermo against 1.31 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 6W 4D 3L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 3W 3D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Ternana in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Ternana in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 9W 9D 8L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Ternana have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Ternana away?
Palermo's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.69 PPG; Ternana away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Palermo or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ternana in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ternana won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Palermo
2
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 0, Ternana have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Palermo 2-3 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 38%, Ternana 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Palermo) and 69% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Ternana in 31%; Palermo have failed to score in 31% of games; Ternana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Palermo's recent matches and 54% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Palermo's recent games and 69% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Ternana tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Ternana in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 27, as Palermo and Ternana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.37 xG and Ternana 0.76 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Ternana attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 50% | Draw 30% | Ternana 20%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 35%, Ternana 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ternana's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.38 PPG, Ternana 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.