Palermo 2-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Perugia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palermo and Perugia meet at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Perugia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Perugia away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.06 xG and Perugia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Perugia attack 0.992 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.084. Data: 0 Palermo games / 38 Perugia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Palermo 31% | Draw 29% | Perugia 40%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Perugia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 31% | Draw 29% | Perugia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Palermo 1.06 / Perugia 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Perugia attack 0.992 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Perugia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Perugia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Perugia kick off?
Palermo vs Perugia kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Perugia?
Palermo 2 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Palermo vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Perugia part of?
Palermo vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 31% chance of winning, Perugia a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palermo and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Perugia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Perugia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.85) and Perugia's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.99x) against Palermo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
31%
3.23
29%
3.41
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.30
1.24
Perugia xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Palermo and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Palermo and 1.24 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Pre-Season
Perugia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
1
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Perugia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Perugia 3-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Perugia?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Perugia 2-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.06 xG and Perugia 1.24 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Perugia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Perugia attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 31% | Draw 29% | Perugia 40%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.