Palermo 0-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palermo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Monza travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 October 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.60 PPG, Monza 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 55% versus Monza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 43% | Monza 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.15 xG and Monza 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.902 / defence 0.759 | Monza attack 0.837 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.130. Palermo's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Palermo games / 9 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 42% | Draw 39% | Monza 19%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.38 | Draw 2.56 | Monza 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 60% | Monza 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 42% | Draw 39% | Monza 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Palermo 1.15 / Monza 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.902 / def 0.759 | Monza attack 0.837 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Palermo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Monza xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Monza kick off?
Palermo vs Monza kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Monza?
Palermo 0 - 3 Monza.
Where is Palermo vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Monza part of?
Palermo vs Monza is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 42% chance of winning, Monza a 19% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Palermo and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Monza in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Monza (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.90) and Monza's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
42%
2.38
39%
2.58
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.86
0.72
Monza xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
6%
16.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Palermo and 0.72 for Monza, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 18W 14D 15L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 8W 11D 28L from 47 games, 0.74 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
On the road, Monza have gone 3W 6D 14L from 23 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.83 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Monza in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 18W 14D 15L in their last 47 games (1.45 PPG), while Monza have gone 8W 11D 28L in their last 47 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Monza away?
Palermo's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.61 PPG; Monza away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Palermo or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Monza in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Monza runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Palermo
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Monza 3-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Monza see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 44%, Monza 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Palermo) and 48% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Monza in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Palermo's recent matches and 52% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Palermo's recent games and 48% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Monza tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Monza in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Palermo 0-3 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.15 xG and Monza 0.72 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Monza outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.90 / defence 0.76 against Monza attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 42% | Draw 39% | Monza 19%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Monza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Monza 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.