Palermo 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Palermo welcome Genoa to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Palermo) versus 1.40 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Genoa in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 50% versus Genoa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 50% | Genoa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.35 xG and Genoa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.050 / defence 1.219 | Genoa attack 0.939 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.075. Data: 4 Palermo games / 4 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 39% | Draw 27% | Genoa 34%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Genoa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Palermo 50% | Genoa 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 39% | Draw 27% | Genoa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Palermo 1.35 / Genoa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.050 / def 1.219 | Genoa attack 0.939 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Palermo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Genoa xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Genoa kick off?
Palermo vs Genoa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Genoa?
Palermo 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Palermo vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Genoa part of?
Palermo vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 39% chance of winning, Genoa a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Palermo and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Genoa in?
Palermo (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-D-L-L. Genoa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.71
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.58
1.23
Genoa xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Palermo and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Palermo and 1.23 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palermo come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Palermo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Genoa in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Genoa have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Palermo or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Genoa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Genoa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when Genoa 2-0 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 50%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palermo) and 50% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palermo's recent games and 50% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Genoa tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Genoa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.35 xG and Genoa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Genoa attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 39% | Draw 27% | Genoa 34%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 50%, Genoa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Palermo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palermo conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.