Padova 0-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Padova host Venezia at Stadio Euganeo in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Padova at 1.30 PPG versus Venezia's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Padova trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 58% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 42% | Venezia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.38 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.899 / defence 1.265 | Venezia attack 0.893 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.087. Data: 12 Padova games / 12 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 37% | Draw 33% | Venezia 30%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Venezia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Padova 80% | Venezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 37% | Draw 33% | Venezia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Padova 1.38 / Venezia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.899 / def 1.265 | Venezia attack 0.893 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Padova (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Venezia xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Venezia kick off?
Padova vs Venezia kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Venezia?
Padova 0 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Padova vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Venezia part of?
Padova vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 37% chance of winning, Venezia a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Padova and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Venezia in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Padova's attack at 0.90x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.07
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Padova xG
Total xG
2.60
1.23
Venezia xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Padova and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Padova and 1.23 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Padova's recent record stands at 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 3L across 12 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Padova heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Padova have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Venezia in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Venezia have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Venezia away?
Padova's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.20 PPG; Venezia away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Padova or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Venezia in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Padova
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 0, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Venezia 3-1 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Padova at 80%, Venezia at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Padova and 60% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Padova's games and 80% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Padova's matches and 60% of Venezia's.
Do Padova and Venezia tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Venezia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Padova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Padova 0-2 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.38 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Padova fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Venezia attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 37% | Draw 33% | Venezia 30%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 42%, Venezia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.